Conservatism and lottery tickets Monday, February 14, 2011
Most of my posts on this blog address what I see as the failings of the left, or the problems with moderate libertarians aka minarchists. So what's my argument for conservatives? Well, it's an argument I'd just as soon offer anyone else. In fact, it's essentially the same argument I offer to those who want to play the lottery.Yes, a lottery ticket may make you rich. But we know that it almost certainly won't. Most conservatives get this. What they miss is that their ideology is about as attractive as a lottery ticket. Really, the argument I'd offer conservatives is not very different. Here it is:
For centuries every government that has ever existed has had the power to interfere in the activities of consenting adults, but it has been vanishingly rare that governments have used this power in the ways that you want them to. Very close to 100% of the time, when governments have had the powers necessary to implement the agenda you endorse, those governments use that power in ways that were absolutely incompatible with your priorities. Unless you have some compelling reason to expect a future exception to a centuries old tendency with approximately zero historical exceptions, it's inconsistent with your priorities to favor a government with any power beyond the extent generally recommended by libertarians. Yes, it's possible that government might actually do what you want but the odds are overwhelmingly against this.
[ posted by James @ 8:38 PM | | Digg this! | del.icio.us | Permanent link | links to this post ]
16 Comments:
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At Wed Mar 02, 08:01:00 PM EST,
Jim said...
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A fantastic challenge for conservatives is marriage. The gay union question merely stirs up animosity because it begs the question and gets them off topic.
The question is not gay union. The question is why the state is involved in marriage at all. If in its wisdom, the state chooses to incent children (to propagate the state) through tax law, that is another question. But by what right does the state involve itself in a private relationship? It does not interfere in any other relationship.
Further, by concentrating on gay marriage, conservatives leave the much more important playing field regarding the harm that single parents cause children, including the bizarre incentives caused by welfare law. Better to concentrate there. -
At Fri Mar 11, 12:21:00 PM EST,
James said...
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Jim
Let's go one step further. The effects on kids of gay marriage vs divorce are unknown and controversial. No one can demonstrate which is really worse and political correctness prevents any meaningful analysis of the evidence.
On the other hand it is absolutely uncontroversial that some groups of people (prostitutes, drug addicts, alcoholics, the mentally ill, career criminals, gang members, pedophiles, etc) are likely to be lousy parents. If it's not logical to the then infer that Jim and James should have a monopoly on determining who may enter into a marriage contract, it's also not logical to infer that the people in the government should have a monopoly on determining who should enter into a marriage contract.
If conservatives understood this, then they'd nearly be libertarians... -
At Sat Mar 12, 03:12:00 AM EST,
Jim said...
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The effects on kids of gay marriage vs divorce are unknown and controversial.
The negative consequences of divorce on children is actually quite well documented. By huge margins, they define the nation's poor, imprisoned, uneducated, and emotionally disturbed. Especially the boys.
But your general point is well taken. My thought is to at least bring conservatives into alignment with their own philosophies where it would yield the most practical utility for our society and culture.
That that exercise would move them further towards socially free markets would be a happy 'coincidence.' -
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